International Monetary Fund

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized ...
Risk

Large vector autoregressive exogenous factor (VARX) model with network regularization

The vector autoregressive model has long been used for portfolio analysis, while a recent extension (VARX) incorporates exogenous factors. Despite its increased forecasting precision, the ...
Risk

Decomposing supply shocks in the US electricity industry: evidence from a time-varying Bayesian panel vector autoregression model

This paper investigates spillovers between electricity supply shocks and US growth, using monthly data from forty-eight US states from January 2001 to September 2016, and employs a novel strategy for ...
International Monetary Fund

Big Players Out of Synch: Spillovers Implications of US and Euro Area Shocks

Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity ...