Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Writes about the future of finance and technology, follow for more. Joint probability teaches us to calculate combined outcomes.

This paper introduces a continuous-time extension to the influential CreditRisk+ model for portfolio credit risk modeling. For capital calculations it introduces a risk measure based on the maximum of ...

Collateral Analytics has launched the CA Credit Risk Model. This new patent pending product is designed to offer quantitative measures of the risk and cost of potential borrower default embedded in a ...

In the past few years, there have been several developments in the field of modeling the credit risk in banks’ commercial loan portfolios. Credit risk is essentially the possibility that a bank’s loan ...

Having spent over 2 decades in banking and financial services, I have seen how financial models evolve, but never at the speed seen today. AI is reshaping credit risk assessment, offering a more ...

Risk modeling comes in varying shapes and sizes throughout the financial world. Having previously worked as a derivatives trader on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and as a senior risk analyst, I ...

Structural models of default are widely used to analyze corporate bond spreads, but have generally been unable to explain why risk premiums are as high as they are. This credit spread puzzle can be ...

Risk models at Credit Suisse had flagged the dangers before their $5.5 billion Archegos loss. Silicon Valley Bank's risk metrics showed clear warnings before their collapse. In both cases, ...